Yoichi Tashiro, professor of agricultural economics at Otsuma Women’s University
The Diet is set to begin debates on a bill to approve the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade agreement and related bills. Prior to the upcoming deliberations, Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel laureate economist of Columbia University who was invited to Tokyo by the Japanese government, advised Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to delay a sales tax increase scheduled for next year. Abe apparently invited Stiglitz to obtain support for his intention to postpone the tax hike to ensure victory in the elections – the essential part of his syllogistic strategy of ratifying the TPP deal to realize Abenomics policies to win majority seats in elections in order to revise the Constitution.
Stiglitz also said that the TPP deal has no effect to boost the U.S. economy. This puts the Abe administration in a quandary, but Abe seems to be thinking that ratification of the TPP agreement is a fixed policy and obtaining votes by delaying a consumption tax hike is another issue.
Will things go as Abe wishes? Stiglitz asserted that the TPP agreement would not be passed in U.S. Congress. Meanwhile, the Japanese government is set to ratify the deal and lead the moves to let it take effect. However, no country is likely to accept Japan, which always makes compromises in negotiations with the United States, to take the leadership. Considering the terms for the deal to take effect, it is the U.S. which has the make-or-break power over the agreement. It is no use rushing to ratify the agreement before the U.S. takes any move. Japan might end up alone on the second floor with a ladder taken away.
The important thing to do now is to disclose to the Japanese people and farmers the whole picture of the TPP negotiations. The administration should make further analysis of the impact of the agreement on agriculture, of which the evaluation is largely divided between the central government and rural areas, and then make an appeal to the public. In order to do so, the Diet should definitely avoid ratifying the agreement in the current session before the Upper House election.
Many of the Japanese people are still not aware of the negative effects of the TPP deal, such as the unsolved issue of food safety, possible decline in food self-sufficiency rate and the prices of pharmaceuticals and medical equipment remaining high, as well as the threat posed by the investment clause. Stiglitz expressed serious concerns over investment-protection provisions of the TPP, which he says could interfere with the ability of governments to boost growth and environment protection. The Japanese government denies the possibility that it will be sued by multinational enterprises under the investor-state dispute settlement clause, but we should listen to the voice of Stiglitz who comes from the nation of frivolous lawsuits.
The TPP is only agreed upon among the member countries. The game is not over yet.
The Abe administration’s usual tactic is to bulldoze its way through by sheer force of numbers. Meanwhile, the key to victory in the coming Upper House election is to win in single-seat constituencies in rural areas. That is to say farmers have the power to decide the outcome of the election. To retain the power, we should not let the Diet ratify the TPP deal now. Let us all unite under the slogan of “No rush to ratify.” I strongly hope the Diet will join the movement.
(March 29, 2016)