James R. Simpson
［By James R. Simpson, Affiliate Professor and Senior Fellow Thomas S. Foley Institute for Public Policy and Public Service Washington State University］
It is understandable that interest in fighting TPP has diminished now that the Abe administration has reorganized—essentially decimated—Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives (JA-ZENCHU) as part of national restructuring. But, I argue, there are ways for Japanese farmers to win the battle over TPP.
One essence of my argument is that internationally farmers’ organizations have been able to uphold the principle that every country has a right to protect and support production of food for its own consumption.
Consider that the WTO round of Doha trade negotiations is stalled in its 15th year. One reason has been failure to agree on agriculture thanks to the alliance of non-trade concerns countries led by Japan.
A center point of my argument is that the agricultural community must explain to consumers the perils they face from loss of special and sensitive commodities. Get consumers angry so they fight the battle! Challenge them by asking how they would feel if thy wake up and find their food security forever lost.
It is reasonable to ask how and why I, a foreigner, seem to speak with so much authority. The answer is I began a detailed study of Japan’s agriculture and society in the mid-1980s. That was when I married my Japanese wife.
Early on I realized that powerful nations were only interested in expanding exports of agricultural commodities regardless of how that attitude would decimate the welfare of farmers and consumers in high production cost nations such as Japan.
I have been fortunate to work with expert academic and governmental specialists on trade in the Uruguay and Doha Rounds of negotiations and now on TPP. A result lies in 40 articles; most in Japanese.
The problem I wrestled with was whether Japan, or any country, has a Right to some nationally decided level of food production. In effect, that all countries have a Right to set some maximum level of food imports. In particular, don’t all the Japanese people have the right to determine what they consider a “secure supply” of food?
Each person has his or her own definition of food security. However, most people would probably agree that food security is a basic right. Actually, it is, and is guaranteed in the United Nations’ International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights that entered into force in January 1976.
I contend as an international agricultural economist—based on facts—that restructuring the agricultural system will not make Japan competitive in the international market place on virtually any agricultural commodities. It is true that a few such as fruits and vegetables can be exported, but the markets are small. Most important, such a strategy will not help Japan’s food security.
The battle about TPP is between Japan and the United States. That is because at least six countries between them must represent 85 percent of the total GDP of the original 12, and have TPP ratified it within two years. That will be difficult.
The issue of TPP has moved from practically being unknown in the United States to a major issue. Both candidates for president, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump claim they are completely against TPP and will not change their positions if elected.
One thing for certain, it will be considerable time before TPP is taken up in the U.S. Congress for a wide swath of Americans and both presidential candidates are against it. So what might happen to get American ratification? One is Japan offers changes sufficiently favorable that the new United States president could slither out of the pre-election claim of never changing on TPP. That’s politics.
Another scenario is what might be termed the “Doha WTO effect” in which time heals the problem. This is a realistic option if Japan’s agricultural community can marshal its forces to avoid a U.S. deal. I for one, hope the Japanese people rally to prevent TPP from taking effect because, while the United States is my mother country, Japan is my father country.