［By James R. Simpson, Affiliate Professor and Senior Fellow Thomas S. Foley Institute for Public Policy and Public Service Washington State University］
The campaign for election of America’s president began in earnest nearly two years ago. This time frame, which has doubled since the 1960s, is unbelievable to Americans as well as the rest of the world.
Much of the reason campaigns have dramatically lengthened is demise of reading newspapers. That media has been replaced by Internet, Smartphones and TV that have turned viewing into an entertainment media.
Another crucial change is that party loyalty has significantly declined. Twenty two% of voters identified themselves as independents in 1952. That percent has doubled to 42% today, although most lean toward one party or another. Why? Because Americans have lost faith and trust in the two political party system.
It is widely accepted by respected authorities that America is a democracy in name only. The reality is America is in a mess because it has become a plutocracy (government by the richest people of a country). Many authorities also consider it an oligarchy (only a small group of people hold all the power in government). In brief, our congressional system and democracy are now in the hands of the rich and powerful.
As of mid-April there were two leading candidates for each political party. Donald Trump, a businessman and TV show celebrity is the Republican (GOP) front runner. He is a populist candidate that voters find on their side despite his sometimes bizarre actions. Most of the public realize he understands and sympathizes with their frustrations about loss of adequate jobs and the middle class. They know about the worldwide loss of trust in America. The big thing is Mr. Trump inspires supporters by his commanding presence and slogan “Make America Great Again.”
As a celebrity Mr. Trump exhibits weird behavior that the entertainment media and public love. The conservative party establishment hates that freedom lover for they demand strict following of their dictates on policies and demands. Party leaders are busy contemplating all sorts of undemocratic methods to stop him from being nominated in the GOP convention.
Ted Cruz, a GOP congressional Senator from Texas, is in second place to Mr. Trump. He is equally unorthodox through his extreme right wing dominionist beliefs. Followers of that theology seek to implement a nation governed by conservative Christian ruling over the rest of society. Mr. Cruz’s stated vision is to “reclaim or “restore” the United States to what he believes is its original identity: a Christian nation.
Mr. Cruz’s foreign policy views are more troubling that Mr. Trump’s. Trump’s proposals, like blackmailing Mexico to pay for a border wall and withdrawing from NATO are wacky. Cruz’s approach on foreign policy is not only outlandish, it frames him as a dangerous individual. For example, his formula to defeat the Islamic State is to “carpet-bomb them into oblivion.”
The issues within the Democratic Party are equally out of the ordinary. Mrs. Clinton has a number of strengths. One is she resonates with women of all ages who believe America is due for a female president. Another strength is her legal background and wide domestic experience as wife of Past President Bill Clinton.
Older voters especially believe in her foreign policy capacity from her being Secretary of State during Mr. Obama’s first four years of presidency. Mrs. Clinton is also the darling of the Democratic Party bureaucracy. In exception to the one vote-one person in true democracy, party leaders gifted her enough super-delegates to virtually assure she wins the Democratic nomination in the upcoming Democratic convention.
Mr. Bernie Sanders is in a weak second place due to the super-delegates. His strength lies with younger and middle aged people. They are vocal and fed up with Washington as a dirty place in which lying is routine business. Mr. Sanders has a strong but limited message about the plutocracy and the need to increase regulation on Wall Street financial affairs. The public loves his demands about a housecleaning in our dysfunctional congressional system.
The problem is Mr. Sander’s self-identification as a Socialist. This is a major reason the older population does not support him. Why? Because to a large portion of older people Socialism translates to Communism. This age group remember the fights and wars against this evil ideology that sought to bring the downfall of America. That attitude now translates to worries about Communist China.
What does the November 2016 election of a president and some congressional representatives mean for Japan? One is while the new president does have power, that person is severely constrained by Congress.
Can Japanese trust American politicians to have the best interests of Japan in mind when contemplating world affairs and policy? As of March, 2016 all four candidates had publicly opposed a TPP deal. Lying by politicians is accepted in America. Who knows?