The ruling Liberal Democratic Party won a sweeping victory in the Upper House election on Sunday, July 21. But Prime Minister Shinzo Abe should take to heart that this does not indicate voters’ acceptance of his administration’s inclination toward neoliberalism. Rather, for rural communities, the future looks increasingly uncertain and gaps between rural and urban areas are growing. Abe cannot just sit back and enjoy the victory. In implementing agricultural policies in particular, he should listen humbly to the concerns of farmers and rural communities.
Although the election put an end to the divided Diet in terms of the number of seats, the division between politics and public opinion has not really been mended. The Abe administration should not overlook the large divergence of opinion among the public concerning issues at stake such as social security, policies on nuclear power plants and the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade talks. If Abe tries to take control over the Diet by mere force of numbers, he will definitely lose public support.
The election results, which offer no exultation of triumph, seem rather familiar to us, as we have seen a similar situation in last year’s general election that made the LDP return to power. In the general election, the single-seat constituency system which allows seats to change back and forth between ruling and opposition parties like a board game Othello enabled the LDP to win 80% of the seats in the Lower House with only about 40% support for the party in single-seat districts. Meanwhile, the LDP was not all that popular in the proportional representation section which more clearly reflects political parties’ actual power. An LDP official admitted that it was only an indication of people voting against the administration of the Democratic Party of Japan, and not necessarily in favor of the LDP. This is an accurate observation.
The landslide victory of the LDP in the Upper House election increased political stability for the mighty ruling coalition of the LDP and New Komeito. The LDP gained 65 seats, the largest number since the party, headed by then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, won an overwhelming victory in the 2001 Upper House election. Nevertheless, the current LDP lacks the enthusiastic public support which the Koizumi administration enjoyed. Rather, there is widespread apathy among the public. The fruits of the so-called “Abenomics” economic policies, such as rising stock prices and exports boosted by a weaker yen, are limited and have not spread to rural communities. Voters, who were fed up with the in-party conflict in the Democratic Party of Japan when it was in power, chose to vote for political stability in both houses of the Diet and for the Abe administration to continue. But this does not mean the people gave Abe carte blanche to make whatever decisions he likes. They are closely watching the outcome of his economic policies.
Farmers hope for economic recovery under Abe’s leadership, but at the same time, they are feeling more anxious about other policies, namely the TPP negotiations. Out of the 31 single-seat constituencies which largely influenced the results of the Upper House election, the LDP won a landslide victory, bagging 29 seats. But in the Yamagata prefectural district, the LDP candidate fought a fierce battle against an anti-TPP opponent and barely managed to win a seat with the support of Abe and other LDP executives who visited the district a number of times. This should be regarded as the rural community’s revolt against the LDP concerning the key issue of trade liberalization. Similar growth of distrust toward the LDP, which made its pro-TPP stance clear, is seen in other agricultural regions such as Hokkaido. Politics which fail to respond carefully to local concerns will be deadlocked sooner or later.
Toshio Yamada, who received backing from the political league of Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA), became the LDP’s second candidate to win a seat in the proportional representation segment of the election, obtaining roughly 338,000 votes. This is a result of strong cooperation among farmers and the JA group with a strong sense of crisis. Yamada said he will work on three issues of concern – the TPP talks, arguments that the agricultural sector and the JA are too much protected, and creating agricultural policies which help farmers stabilize their business. Abe put up drastic deregulation as the basis of the third of his “three arrows” of growth strategies to revitalize the nation. We should never let this move lead to unreasonable criticisms on the agricultural sector and the JA.
(July 23, 2013)